Dealing with the Russia-Ukraine Conflict: A Diplomatic Assessment

Abstract

This study provides a comprehensive diplomatic assessment of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, examining the effectiveness of various international intervention strategies since the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the 2022 full-scale invasion. Through qualitative analysis using systematic literature, this research evaluates four primary diplomatic approaches: bilateral negotiations, multilateral diplomacy, economic sanctions, and third-party mediation. The study analyzes diplomatic efforts by key international actors including the United Nations, NATO, the European Union, and emerging mediators such as Turkey and China. The research reveals that multilateral diplomacy has been the most effective approach (effectiveness score: 8/10), successfully coordinating international responses and providing crucial political support to Ukraine, despite being constrained by Russia's UN Security Council veto power. Economic sanctions implemented by Western powers achieved moderate success (7/10) in pressuring Russia's economy but failed to fundamentally alter Moscow's strategic calculations, as Russia pivoted toward non-Western allies. Bilateral negotiations between Russia and Ukraine showed limited effectiveness (6/10) due to entrenched positions and conflicting territorial objectives, though they remain essential for crisis management and humanitarian corridors. Third-party mediation efforts (5/10) have produced specific successes, such as Turkey's grain export agreement, but have not achieved broader conflict resolution. The study concludes that while no single diplomatic approach has proven sufficient to resolve the conflict, the combination of these strategies has been crucial in preventing further escalation and maintaining international pressure on Russia. The research contributes to international relations scholarship by providing empirical evidence of diplomatic effectiveness in highly militarized conflicts and offers strategic recommendations for enhancing global diplomatic frameworks in future geopolitical crises.