Enhancing Rural Water Supply Systems Through System Dynamics Modelling: Addressing the impact of Power Shortages on Water Availability

Abstract

It is essential to have access to a dependable water supply, especially in rural locations where power outages make water scarcity worse.  This study examines how power outages affect water supply in decentralized and centralized dam-based borehole systems using system dynamics modeling. In centralized systems, pumps require consistent power, and load shedding leads to prolonged water outages. Similarly, boreholes rely on electric pumps, and power interruptions force households to seek unreliable water sources. These disruptions increase health risks and intensify burdens on vulnerable populations, especially women and children. The system dynamics model integrates key variables such as electricity reliability, water demand, and community resilience strategies to predict outcomes and recommend targeted interventions. Findings indicate a decline in water availability and electricity reliability over time, highlighting the vulnerability of rural water systems. However, interventions such as solar-powered systems, hybrid energy solutions, and optimized water storage have improved water access and well-being. While significant progress is observed, slowing growth in well-being improvements suggests the need for sustained investment and innovation. This study emphasizes the necessity of sustainable energy solutions, adaptive infrastructure, and proactive policies to ensure long-term water security and improved quality of life in rural communities.