Historical Analysis of The Fiscal Pressure of Ecuador Period 2010 - 2021

Abstract

The tax burden is the real contribution made by companies and individuals to the government as a percentage of the Gross Domestic Product. The research is oriented to the analysis of the Ecuadorian tax burden in the period 2010 - 2021. For this purpose it was necessary to apply a quantitative, descriptive, explanatory cross-sectional study including the historical and correlational method, it was also necessary to apply statistical techniques such as Bayesian correlation and confirmatory factor analysis. The results reflect that the Ecuadorian fiscal pressure reflects fluctuations, the tax pressure of the central government is the largest component of the fiscal pressure and is reduced from 2016 to 2018, the tax pressure of the subnational government reflects low and constant items, for its part the contribution to social security has variations but remains stable at an average of 5% of GDP. The Bayesian correlation reflects the strength and direction of the linear relationship, highlighting the central government tax burden with the highest and most significant correlation with respect to fiscal pressure. The confirmatory factor analysis suggests that there is a positive relationship between tax burden and GDP growth. In the analysis, the model has an excellent fit, suggesting that the proposed model fits the observed data very well.