Ensuring Security in Crisis: Risk Mitigation Strategies and Response Planning

Abstract

Introduction: National security is ensured through the formation and implementation of strategic management policy. The process is aimed primarily at overcoming risks and threats, preventing them and recurrence. Security management is particularly relevant in the current crisis conditions caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, external pressure and instability in all areas of national security.

Objectives: The study aims to theoretically analyse and formulate practical recommendations on national security management in a crisis in the context of strategies and mechanisms for ensuring it.

Methods: It uses several scientific methods, including systemic and economic analysis, synthesis, comparison and scientific abstraction, statistical methods (regression and correlation analysis), K-means and multivariate cluster analysis.

Results: The article examines the types of crises likely to occur in the security sector both within society and in the context of external influence. It defines a “fragile state” as a consequence of a crisis in one or more national security subsystems. Among the methodologies for analysing the level of “fragility”, the research suggests the approach of the Peace Foundation, which measures the Fragile State Index. The latter covers the sectors of cohesion (security apparatus, fragmentation of elites, group grievances and divisions), economy (poverty, inequality and economic development, outflow of intellectual labour), politics (state legitimacy, public services, human rights and the rule of law) and society. It is determined that the Fragile State Index for Ukraine reached a critical value in 2023, which makes it necessary to effectively revise management strategies to counter threats in a crisis. Empirical data emphasise the importance of synergy of efforts and a high level of coordination to protect territorial integrity and national sovereignty in the context of the rapidly changing geopolitical situation. It is substantiated that the sustainability of national security is determined, in particular, by the level of integration of digital innovative risk management solutions. The study analyses the National Cyber Security Index (NCSI) cybersecurity rating of digital development and the specifics of integrated information security systems (IPS).

Conclusions: Thus, the study results are of practical value in improving the anti-crisis management paradigm in the field of national security, as well as in the formation of appropriate plans for responding to challenges and preventing risks.