A Study on the Multiple Mechanisms of Population Aging Affecting Regional Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Chinese Provinces

Abstract

The demographic shifts triggered by population aging profoundly influence the regional economic development patterns worldwide. Investigating the mechanisms through which aging affects regional economic growth helps clarify the economic development trajectory under new trends. Based on provincial panel data from China spanning 2010 to 2020, this study employs a bidirectional fixed-effects threshold model and a Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) to explore the impact and mechanisms of population aging on economic growth. The analysis reveals that population aging suppresses regional economic development. However, its effect on economic growth is non-linear: before the elderly dependency ratio reaches the threshold of 18%, aging has a positive impact on economic growth, but beyond this threshold, its effect becomes significantly negative. The primary channels through which aging hinders economic growth are the reduction in labor supply and the increased burden on social security systems. Nevertheless, technological advancement and infrastructure development can partially mitigate these negative impacts. Furthermore, the impact of aging on regional economic development varies across regions, depending on spatial factors and local development conditions. Aging not only affects economic growth within a region but also exerts negative spillover effects on neighboring regions through spatial interactions.

Based on these findings, this study suggests that the government should optimize population structure, actively foster the "silver economy," strengthen human capital development, and enhance regional coordination to mitigate the spatial spillover risks of aging.