Future Challenges to Food Security in Morocco Between Geostrategy and Climate Change

Abstract

Introduction: Morocco's food security strategy must balance resource optimization with agricultural modernization. While the country has made notable progress, persistent structural challenges remain: erratic rainfall patterns (requiring minimum 300mm annually), severe water stress, and lagging productivity in critical sectors like sugar, olives and dairy. The nation's heavy import dependence - particularly for cereals (43%), sugar (65%) and vegetable oils - creates significant vulnerability to global price shocks. However, Morocco possesses competitive advantages in citrus fruits, tomatoes, and animal products that could generate exportable surpluses with improved yields and value chain efficiency. Realizing food sovereignty will require: (1) climate-smart water management, (2) targeted sectoral investments, (3) input subsidy reforms, and (4) enhanced market competitiveness. Success hinges on sustained policy commitment and adaptive capacity to mitigate climate risks while capitalizing on strategic export opportunities. Key improvements from previous version:

• Added specific data points


• Structured challenges and solutions more clearly


• Included implementation aspects (value chains, subsidy reforms)


• Maintained analytical depth while staying concise.

Objectives: The main objective of this study is to assess the future of food security by considering key factors influencing food demand and supply, such as demographic growth, economic trends, agricultural policies, and climate change.

Methods: This study adopts an integrated approach combining projections, scenario analysis, and economic modeling to assess Morocco’s food security. It includes forecasting food supply and demand using economic models, analyzing trends in agricultural productivity and GDP, and evaluating the impacts of climate change on crop yields. The study also explores the role of technology and research & development in boosting productivity, assesses Morocco’s dependence on food imports and global market risks, and examines water and land management strategies to support sustainable agriculture. Together, these methods help anticipate future challenges and guide strategic decision-making.

Results: The study reveals a persistent reliance on imports of strategic products such as cereals, pulses, sugar, and olive oil. However, opportunities for surpluses emerge in certain sectors, including citrus fruits, tomatoes, dairy products, eggs, and seafood.

Projections indicate an expected improvement in meeting food demand for several products, particularly fruits, vegetables, as well as white and red meats.

Two scenarios were analyzed:

The baseline scenario (S1) assumes a continuation of current trends, with modest progress.

The ambitious scenario (S2), aligned with the objectives of the Green Morocco Plan and Generation Green, assumes several conditions: annual rainfall of at least 300 mm, continued agricultural subsidies (especially for soft wheat and sugar), and catch-up efforts in the sugar, olive, and dairy sectors.

Finally, the study highlights several major structural challenges, including:

• An aging farming population,


• Increasing water scarcity,


• A decline in available agricultural land per capita.

Conclusions: Despite notable progress, Morocco continues to face structural challenges to achieving food security. The country’s future in this area will largely depend on its ability to gradually reduce its dependence on food imports, while simultaneously improving domestic agricultural yields. Equally important is the sustainable management of key natural resources, particularly water and agricultural land, which are increasingly under pressure. Strengthening strategic agricultural value chains will also be essential, along with promoting the adoption of modern technologies and the expansion of localized irrigation systems. Together, these efforts will be crucial in building a more resilient and self-sufficient food system for Morocco.