Differential Population-Development Elasticity Coefficients Across Economic Tiers: A Multi-Parameter Panel Regression Analysis of 194 Nations (2000-2024)

Abstract

This study quantifies the bidirectional elasticity coefficients between population dynamics and economic development across differentiated economic strata through a comprehensive econometric analysis of 194 nations (2000-2024).

Employing a heterogeneous panel regression framework with Arellano-Bond GMM estimators (n=4,656 country-year observations), we analyzed population-development elasticity across high-income (n₁=61), middle-income (n₂=89), and low-income (n₃=44) economies. The model incorporates heterosexuality-robust standard errors (HC3 variant) and spatial auto-correlation controls (Conley standard errors, 500km threshold).

Our findings demonstrate hierarchical population-development elasticity across economic strata, with high-income nations exhibiting a 20.51-fold greater development elasticity compared to low-income counterparts (95% CI: 18.74-22.28). These results suggest that population-development relationships are significantly moderated by economic infrastructure and institutional capacity, necessitating stratified policy approaches to demographic management.