Factors Affecting Rice Export Decisions: A Case Study of Vietnam

Abstract

This paper investigates the key factors influencing rice export decisions in Vietnam, one of the world's leading rice exporters. Using a mixed-method approach combining quantitative surveys and in-depth interviews with rice exporters and policymakers, the study identifies variables such as government policy, international market demand, production capacity, logistics infrastructure, and global price fluctuations as critical determinants. The findings provide insights into how Vietnam can enhance its export competitiveness and formulate sustainable export strategies. The empirical results indicate that rice production, yield, and global demand have a statistically significant and positive impact on rice exports. In contrast, both domestic prices and export prices are found to negatively affect rice export volumes, implying that higher price levels may reduce competitiveness or domestic availability. Meanwhile, domestic demand appears statistically insignificant, suggesting that export decisions are more closely tied to supply-side and global market dynamics. To assess the short-term dynamics and the adjustment mechanism toward long-run equilibrium, a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is estimated. The VECM results reveal that the system corrects deviations from the long-run path at a rate of approximately 0.62% per year, indicating a slow but steady convergence. In conclusion, the study recommends that Vietnamese policymakers prioritize improvements in rice yield per hectare and total production capacity. These are shown to be the most effective drivers of export growth. Additionally, measures to enhance global market access and reduce price volatility will further strengthen Vietnam’s position as a leading rice exporter in an increasingly competitive global market.