Impact of the US-China Trade War on Vietnam's Import and Export

Abstract

The US-China trade war, initiated in 2018, has significantly reshaped global trade flows, influencing the economic trajectories of several countries, including Vietnam. This paper explores the impact of the trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies on Vietnam’s import and export structure. Using secondary data and recent literature, we examine the trade war's implications for Vietnam's export growth to the United States, shifts in its import patterns particularly from China and broader changes in global value chains. The study finds that Vietnam has benefited from trade diversion effects, enhancing its position as a manufacturing and export hub. However, it also faces challenges such as increasing dependence on imported inputs, risks of protectionist measures, and heightened competition from regional peers. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for Vietnam to sustain its trade performance amid ongoing geopolitical tensions