Unlocking India’s Natural Disaster (Flood and Cyclone): Challenges in Terms of Indirect Losses and Probability of Reoccurrence

Abstract

Natural disasters, particularly floods and cyclones, are India's biggest threats, causing substantial economic losses. While tangible losses are calculated post-disaster events, indirect losses impacting the broader economy are frequently overlooked. This study aims to compute indirect losses for the Srinagar region in (Jammu and Kashmir), severely affected by the 2014 Jhelum River flood, resulting in a direct economic loss of 20 billion dollars. In this study, Input-Output tables from 2010-2020 from A.D.B. are employed under Leontief theory, and both Static and Dynamic Input-Output models were constructed. The dynamic flood surge model is developed to estimate accumulative output loss over various recovery periods. The findings indicate flood surge in the Srinagar region severely impacted the agricultural sector. Retail trade, except motorcars and motorbikes; home goods repair, inland transport, chemicals; wholesale distribution and intermediary trade, except motor vehicles and motorcycles and electricity, gas, financial intermediation, and water supply, While education, health and social work, air transport and water transport were least affected Sectors. The study reveals that retail trade commerce, except motor cars and motorbikes, experienced rapid recovery in the early stages but remained stable later. It is crucial to assess indirect loss due to disaster events as they impact various economic sectors beyond the immediate zone, including supply chain disruptions and labor market disruptions. It helps in planning for production, social and economic stability, and implementing appropriate protection measures. India faces significant financial losses due to natural catastrophes like floods and cyclones, including tangible and indirect losses that impact the country's overall economy.